Key Insights from the Foreign Policy Analysis
The Assad regime faces rapid collapse due to economic disintegration, criminal networks, and resurging opposition forces. Foreign Policy explores the regime's fragile position. Analyzing the Assad regime's decline, Foreign Policy highlights Syria's economic collapse, weakened military, and rising opposition forces. What does this mean for Syria's future?
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Analysis: Why Is the Assad Regime Rapidly Collapsing?
YEREL GÜNDEM / TÜRKİYE
The Fragile Foundations of Assad's Rule
A recent article in Foreign Policy highlights the accelerating collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Marked by economic disintegration, the spread of organized crime, and dwindling international support, the regime faces its most precarious period since the civil war began in 2011. As armed opposition groups gain momentum, the future of Syria remains more uncertain than ever.
Key Insights from the Foreign Policy Analysis
Not a "Surprise Attack"
Armed groups, spearheaded by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched a large-scale operation from northern Syria, capturing approximately 250 towns, cities, and villages within a week. This offensive, which saw Aleppo fall within 24 hours, doubled the territories under opposition control.
Although dramatic, the operation was anticipated. HTS had announced its plans in mid-October, prompting responses from Turkey and Russian airstrikes. However, Assad's forces were unprepared, further exposing the regime's vulnerabilities.
Russia’s Failed Investments
Despite eight years of support, Russia's efforts to rebuild Syria's military have faltered. The Syrian army remains undisciplined, poorly coordinated, and heavily reliant on fragmented militia groups. Notably, advanced Russian technologies like suicide drones have been neutralized by HTS's Kataib Shaheen drone units, further diminishing the effectiveness of Assad's forces.
HTS’s Rising Military Capacity
HTS has emerged as a formidable force, boasting elite units such as Asaib al-Hamra (Red Brigades) and Saraya al-Harari (Thermal Brigades). Equipped with cruise missiles and advanced explosives, HTS has neutralized the regime's heavy artillery, forcing rapid withdrawals in key regions like Hama.
This resurgence signals a significant shift in Syria's conflict dynamics, with opposition forces threatening regime-held strongholds across the country, including Daraa in the south and Deir ez-Zor in the east.
The Foundations of Collapse
Economic Breakdown
Syria's economy has been in freefall since the 2020 ceasefire. The Syrian pound has plummeted from 1,150 to 17,500 per US dollar, leaving much of the population below the poverty line. As state aid dwindles, organized crime networks dominate the economy, further undermining public trust and stability.
The country is now a global hub for narcotics production, fueling corruption and weakening what remains of the regime's institutional control.
Shifting Global and Regional Dynamics
Russia's focus on the war in Ukraine and Iran's preoccupation with Israeli strikes have diverted their attention from Syria. While both nations have provided limited support during the latest opposition offensive, their capacity to significantly bolster Assad's regime has waned.
Meanwhile, Arab nations that sought normalization with Assad in 2023 are reconsidering their strategies. The absence of robust international engagement leaves the regime isolated in its battle for survival.
A Precarious Future
The Assad regime is grappling with an unprecedented convergence of challenges: economic collapse, rising organized crime, international disinterest, and a reinvigorated opposition. With its support base fractured and external allies stretched thin, the government’s ability to navigate these crises appears increasingly unlikely.
Syria's future hangs in the balance, shaped by domestic turmoil and shifting regional alliances.
Source: Cumhuriyet
